§ 03 · a section of the read
Where it’s heading
A market is a trajectory, not a snapshot.
What it is
Each market reconstructed quarter by quarter on one method, two years back: its mood, confidence and tone over time, and which of the Four Europes it sits in, with a marker when it changes.
How it's built
We rebuilt every prior quarter with today’s engine, so the history is comparable rather than a patchwork of old methods. And we apply hysteresis: a market only changes archetype when the shift holds for two quarters, so movement reflects a real turn, not a single-quarter wobble.
What you get
- The eight-quarter archetype path for the market.
- Mood, confidence-versus-its-mean and news tone, quarter by quarter.
- When a market moved cluster, and whether the move sustained.
- How the market sits now relative to where it has been.
From the data
France held Two-speed for seven quarters, then moved to Resilient: the felt recovery running ahead of the economy, sustained across two quarters before we called it.
This is one section of a full Cadence read.