Trade-down is the most consistent behavioural signal across Europe this quarter. It shows up most clearly as a search contest: the discounter against the national mainstream grocer, inside each market. The direction is the same almost everywhere. The intensity is not.
A continent-wide behaviour, fought on local ground.
The map
One glance shows it: Italy is the sharpest front in Europe, Spain and Austria close behind, and France among the softest of the major markets. Ireland barely registers, its discounter already long entrenched.
The league table
| Market | The contest | Gap |
|---|---|---|
| Italy | Lidl vs Esselunga | +32 |
| Spain | Lidl vs Mercadona | +22 |
| Austria | Lidl vs Billa | +22 |
| Germany | Lidl vs Edeka | +13 |
| Sweden | Lidl vs ICA | +12 |
| Belgium | Lidl vs Colruyt | +11 |
| Netherlands | Lidl vs Albert Heijn | +9 |
| Poland | Biedronka vs Auchan | +9 |
| France | Lidl vs Carrefour | +8 |
| Ireland | Aldi vs Dunnes Stores | +1 |
Why the map matters
A pan-European grocery or FMCG strategy that treats trade-down as one setting will be far too aggressive in France and far too gentle in Italy. The same campaign pressure reads as decisive in Milan and as panic in Paris.
The map, not the average, is the brief.
Which way each market is heading
Where a market sits matters less than where it is going. In our two-year reconstruction, Italy moved into the two-speed, trading-down profile in mid-2025 and has held it. France moved the other way, out of the squeeze and into Resilient. Two markets that look alike on a single number are on opposite trajectories.
What to do
Read market by market, the same behaviour becomes a different brief.
| Market | The move |
|---|---|
| Italy | Lead hard on value |
| Spain | Strong value message |
| Germany | Value, with reassurance |
| France | Value, with warmth |
| Ireland | Compete beyond price |
The takeaway
Europe is not one trade-down story. It is ten local versions of the same behaviour, each needing a different response.
Method and sources
Anchored Google Trends search, normalised so each market reflects its local competitive contest rather than Europe-wide brand movement. The discounters and grocers named are public consumer brands. A read, not a forecast.